A reader dropped a note to a Chinese publication that was referring to Hong Kong-based SCMP that indicates that China is likely to keep its borders closed for international arrivals until mid-2022.
The country won’t reach herd-immunity through vaccinations before mid-2022 and likely won’t allow international arrivals without quarantine until then to prevent sparks in imported Covid-19 cases.
Here’s an excerpt from the SCMP:
This came as the government said the pandemic was still serious, and a leading health expert said herd immunity was unlikely to be achieved before the middle of 2022.
Keeping the disease under control was one of the priorities for 2021, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said in its annual report released on Friday, and preventing imported cases from sparking local outbreaks was “the priority among the priorities”
“We estimate it will be the middle of next year at the earliest and the end of next year at the latest before 70 to 80 per cent [the threshold needed to achieve herd immunity] of the population has been inoculated,” he told China News Service.
While the approval of other vaccines – Beijing has so far given the green light to four products, all of them Chinese – would help with production issues, reaching herd immunity would also depend on support from the public, he said.
Conclusion
There is a travel bubble in the works between China, Hong Kong, and Macau that may be announced in the next three months or so. These proposed bubbles have often burst before taking effect, like what happened between Hong Kong and Singapore.
This means that neither Macao nor Hong Kong will reopen for international tourists before the Mainland does that is likely sometime in 2022.
I wish China would at least permit tourism after a mandatory quarantine. I have been traveling there for the past several years and really miss not being able to visit friends. I’m sure this applies to most of us with respect to multiple countries but China is of particular interest to me because they have nearly no covid cases and life is back to normal.
14 to 21-day long quarantine at a hotel that you may not be able to choose is not very enticing.
I would take the risk in order to return to some form of sanity. Apart from smelling like smoke i have never been in a particularly bad hotel and I’ve stayed in places for less than $10. I
Alan, fully agree and we would accept a 10-day quarantine in Hyatt on the Bund or Mission Hills, Dongguan and others.
The staff there would certainly make it very bearable.
Some airlines have introduced even lower fares and ‘season ticket’ formats.