Australia May Not Fully Reopen Until 2024

On its most recent Access Economics’ quarterly outlook, Deloitte expects Australia to restrict in- and outbound travel for longer than previously expected and that the mandatory quarantine is here to stay for some time.

Australia and New Zealand are scheduled to open a Trans-Tasman bubble a week from now to allow travel quarantine free between these two countries.

Here’s an excerpt from the 7News:

A new report has warned that international travel for Australians is likely to remain restrictive until 2024.

Deloitte Access Economics’ quarterly business outlook – printed prior to the Morrison government’s vaccination program being thrown into disarray late last week – expects international borders will re-open only gradually.

For Australia, Deloitte economist Chris Richardson anticipates there will be some sort of quarantine remaining for incoming travellers for some time.

“That keeps international travel – both inbound and outbound – pretty weak in 2022, and it may not return to pre-pandemic levels until 2024,” he said.

The trans-Tasman bubble is set to start week from now:

Trans-Tasman Travel Bubble Starts On April 19, 2021

Conclusion

Expecting the international to rebound pre-pandemic level in 2024 is overly optimistic.

As I have said before, it is very easy to seal off the border, as many island nations have done, but reopening is a prolonged process.

I would not personally be as pessimistic as this Deloitte report. Still, it seems unlikely, at this point, that there would be quarantine-free travel to Australia, outside of specific bubbles, before some time in 2022.