Deloitte released a study in April (access here). The consultancy predicted Australia’s border and quarantine requirement to stay in place for far longer than first thought, and that indeed appears to be the case.
Any hope of the country opening late this year is crushed by the delayed vaccine roll out and expectancy that the pandemic is under control worldwide before lifting controls.
Here’s an excerpt from the Australian about the delayed rollout:
The federal government initially set a target that every Australian would be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 by the end of October, and major airlines such as Qantas based their relaunching of international services around that timeline.
However, supply issues and concerns about the risk of rare blood clotting from the AstraZeneca vaccine in those younger than 50 prompted the government to abandon any immunisation deadline.
Perhaps sometime in 2022:
Senator Birmingham said international borders could remain shut well into 2022.
“We recognise that if Australians want to be kept safe and secure … and given uncertainties that exist not just in the speed of the vaccine rollout but also the extent of its effectiveness to different variants of COVID, the duration of its longevity and effectiveness, these are all considerations that mean we won’t be seeing borders flung open at the start of next year with great ease,”
And even when it begins in 2022, it is likely “bubbles” with some countries first, according to The Telegraph:
When international travel does restart, it is likely to begin with ‘bubbles’ shared with nations including Singapore, Japan, and Vietnam, Trade Minister Dan Tehan stated last week.
Australian Ambassador to the US had stated that the border might stay closed until the world is vaccinated because lockdowns are popular with the Aussies, according to the Daily Mail:
US Ambassador Arthur Sinodinos told an online forum for the Hudson Institute that although border closures are costing Australia’s economy billions, it might be years before citizens get on a plane or return home without having to quarantine.
But Mr Sinodinos said it may take a lot longer given how scared Australians citizens are and how popular strict lockdown measures have become with the public as a result – giving politicians plenty of incentive to support them.
Deloitte expects prolonged border closure:
Conclusion
It is difficult for countries that expect absolutely zero cases from the country the visitors are coming from or zero community spread.
Even when you are vaccinated, it won’t prevent you from catching covid, but the chance of it being fatal is significantly reduced, and the likelihood of you spreading it is low. It is unclear how long the immunity lasts and if there is a need for booster shots to battle new variants.
It is very challenging to see Covid-19 disappearing anytime soon because herd immunity worldwide is years away if we even ever reach it due to vaccine hesitancy and the continuing mutation of the virus.
It is easy to close the borders, but reopening them is a complicated process, as Australia and New Zealand are finding out.
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We are lucky Australia not interesting and amazing country to visit, it can stay closed to 2030…
There is much better to visit elsewhere in the world !
As always, I appreciate your words and thoughts… and I will look forward to seeing the world reopen to leisure travel when enough governments think it is safe. Well, preferably also when it is in actuality safe too!
One clunker in your conclusion: “It is very channeling to see Covid-19 disappearing…” should be “challenging” not “channeling” I imagine. I apologize for being pedantic but it was jarring to read a well crafted article and then have the modern writer’s bane, auto correct, rear its ugly head.
You are right with the autocorrect. I need to pay more attention. Thanks for pointing out.
Doubt that Aus can have a bubble with any country with the current zero case policy. Its just a cat and mouse game. ”Bubble open”, ”bubble closed”, ”bubble open”…
Ffs! Why not 2030? As long as Nicole and Zac Efron can still come and go
Good point Alex!
The narrative really needs to change in Australia. COVID is here to stay – and it’s never going to be completely eradicated. Not in our lifetime at least. And Australia simply can’t afford living in forever isolation. No matter what Phillip tells you!
The quarantine & travel restrictions were meant to be a temporary measure.
Now that vaccine is available, Pastor Morrison needs to inoculate everyone who wants it and open up the borders. We are a small country of 20-something million people – how difficult this can be? US does 3-4mil injections a day.
We call that brainwashing, fear of the unknown.
The best of Australia is showing.
You said
“The quarantine & travel restrictions were meant to be a temporary measure.”
PT Barnum!
hot off the press: https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/australia/scott-morrison-says-australia-will-remain-shut-off-to-the-world-indefinitely/news-story/ — you can’t make this shit up!
url: https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/australia/scott-morrison-says-australia-will-remain-shut-off-to-the-world-indefinitely/news-story/38da4e3b62dd8ad42bc3c44bb7b1f0cc#.3rpbe
Who in their right mind wants to go to Australia? It’s full of Australians and that’s enough to put anyone off.
Excellent .. based on below comments the plan is working! We don’t need to build the wall after all .. our lovely peers in the comments are self selecting.
Australians are scared of Covid. Zero covid policy leaves ZERO chance for herd immunity and stronger immune systems. When the country opens up in 2030, you may have a nation full of weaklings that will not fare well against new future diseases
If Australian citizen are happy to live in a big jail, why not.
They can also apply to be the first citizens for the permanent station in March, they know already what is it to be locked forever.
Finally the government don’t any realistic plan, just wait and see.
Have a good luck.
In this world, hopefully, there some good democracy, where people freedom and choice is important and this is not Australia.
Yes, “choices” are a nice to have, but with them come responsibilities, and that is a fact so many people forget. I guess what you mean is I will do what I like and I don’t give a stuff what anyone thinks. Not sure I’d want to live in a country with people like that. Our system is far from perfect, and at times I am absolutely incensed at the stupidity of our current government. But I am reasonably safe, and not living in a country ravaged by covid.
Your ramblings are silly and naive. It is clear all Australians are still suffering from acute verbal / written diarrhea.
I think John’s note was balanced and an insight to how his life is lived in these times.
What is ravaged with Covid ? In my city of half million (area of 2 millions people), we have 10 people in ICU. This is ravaged ?
We also have normal life, you need to listen and watch channel without propaganda.
I protect myself correctly and I never get the Covid, I had travel to Africa/Italy in 2020, and I am now vaccinated, no need to hide in a hole.
Yes.. well no ..I think the term ravaged refers to what We saw in US in early days ..parts of Europe and then Brazil and now India and likely parts of south east Asia next. But are you saying after a third wave you still have that many people in ICU on a a day to day basis?
ravaged by covid-no
ravaged by tyrants-yes
The ICU is so busy…that’s why hospital TIC TOK is such a thing right now.
No, when you stay with ICU machine usually you leave after 1-2 weeks the ICU area, to be back to a normal room.
So it’s actually only 10 people in the same time globally, for all the hospital in the area (the ICU are much more busy for the regular problems (accident or for usual serious surgery)).