Who Is Really Traveling To Thailand Right Now As International Airlines Return 80% Of Their Slots?

There is new data available that was supplied to the public by Airports of Thailand (AOT) and the Thai Tourism Authorities, showcasing how many tourists have actually arrived in the first week of the countries reopening.

Daily numbers are obviously fluctuating but international airlines have already returned 80% of their slots to AOT for the coming five months, limiting capacity considerably.

While the media (especially locally) tries to paint a rosy picture of the reopening efforts and arrival numbers it’s important to look at the real numbers in the first few days/weeks and then keep monitoring them over the next months for comparison.

The Bangkok Post has this table today, showcasing the

So the top ten countries have provided 7,818 visitors but the total number is 13,129. I wonder where the discrepancy is? Are then majority of the remainders Thai citizens? This graphic doesn’t mention if it based on origin or nationality.

There has been absolutely nothing in terms of extended media coverage about these “10 visitors from a total of 13,129 found to have contracted Covid-19” and again one really has to wonder why that is.

On Wednesday there were apparently six cases in the first two days but since then the numbers varied in the few discussions I was able to find. For example Richard Barrow was talking about three. No word about mandatory quarantine for those who had closer contact with said travelers.

Bangkok Sees 4,510 Arrivals On Monday and Tuesday, Six Passengers Test Positive For Covid

There has been a lot of frustration surrounding the functionality of the Thailand Pass website with many reporting errors preventing them from submitting the application entirely, rejections, problems with the Johnson&Johnson vaccine as the website initially asked for two certificates. It took them two weeks to let the website go live yet once again Thailand dropped the ball and didn’t run proper tests prior. Shambolic!

What does this mean for tourism in Thailand in the long run?

Usually when these schemes start we see an uptick in arrivals at the beginning but then the numbers go flat again after a few weeks even under normal circumstances. Remember that people had a lot of problems with the Thailand Pass and most of these who arrived since Monday November 1st are actually still using a Certificate of Entry which had been updated electronically to 1 Day waiting period. Very few have used the Thailand Pass at this point.

The real wave of arrivals if you want to call it that is still ahead. If you count and average of 2000 arrivals per day that would be 60,000 in November and 60,000 in December.

In the meanwhile Thai PBS reported that the international airlines have already returned 80% of their slots to Airports of Thailand, meaning they don’t expect a lot of demand for the coming months.

International airlines have returned as many as 80% of their airport slots at Thailand’s six international airports between October 31^st and March 26^th next year, indicating their uncertainty over a recovery in the aviation sector, according to Nitinai Sirisamatthakarn, the managing director of Airports of Thailand (AOT) Public Company.

AOT operates Suvarnabhumi, Don Muaeng, Phuket, Hat Yai, Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai’s Mae Fah Luang international airports.

He disclosed that the lowest point for the aviation industry in Thailand was from July to September, this year, after the Thai government suspended all regular flights as a precautionary measure to contain the COVID-19 pandemic, during which average daily arrivals at the six international airports was only 50 passengers. …

Airlines have given up 100% of their slots at Don Muaeng airport and about 70% of those at Suvarnabhumi, said Nitinai.

AOT suffered 11 billion baht in operational losses in the first nine months of this year and an estimated 10 billion baht for the whole year, he said, adding that business over the next two years will, however, gradually recover.

Without flights there won’t be a big uptick in arrival numbers and when I look at the pictures and reports from Suvarnabhumi Airport I’m sure they couldn’t even handle them in the first place. Some passengers who arrived this week described 2-3 waiting times in the concourse area before they were processed and let out of the airport. Remember, the new system was designed to make things easier and faster. Neither has been the case so far.

Obviously your experience will largely depend on the timing of your flight and if you can leave the aircraft among the first group of passengers as well as other flights that might have just arrived ahead of you.

Conclusion

Thailand is regularly updating the numbers of arrivals although it’s often difficult to disseminate which of these are actual tourism arrivals and which are Thai citizens returning from their own holidays overseas. Thais love to travel and haven’t really been able to go anywhere for the last 18 months so for the past half year those who are able to secure a visa to the available destinations overseas often take the chance and take off.

The passenger numbers that are coming in will be low for quite some time. I’d be surprised to see a month with close to or more than 100,000 arrivals anytime soon. Even with Thailand now offering more of a recreational environment again it’s not a flawless experience compared to many other destinations.